Hong Kong Scientists Unveil AI System to Improve Extreme Weather Forecasting

HONG KONG (GeokHub) — Scientists in Hong Kong have developed a new artificial intelligence–powered weather forecasting system capable of predicting severe thunderstorms and heavy rainfall up to four hours in advance, a significant improvement over current short-term forecasting limits.

The research team said the system is designed to help governments, emergency responders, and public safety agencies prepare more effectively for extreme weather events, which are becoming more frequent as climate change intensifies.

The model was developed by researchers at the Hong Kong University of Science and Technology and focuses primarily on forecasting heavy rainfall associated with convective storms. According to the team, existing tools typically provide warnings between 20 minutes and two hours ahead, leaving limited time for response.

How the AI Model Works

The forecasting system uses advanced generative artificial intelligence techniques that train the model to recognize and reverse random “noise” introduced into historical weather data. This approach allows the system to generate more precise short-term forecasts by learning complex atmospheric patterns.

The AI framework refreshes its predictions every 15 minutes and has improved forecasting accuracy by more than 15%, researchers said.

Satellite data plays a central role in the system. By analyzing infrared signals that track cloud formation, the model can detect early signs of storm development earlier than radar-based systems, offering valuable lead time for warnings.

Built for a Changing Climate

The technology was developed in collaboration with mainland Chinese weather authorities and trained using satellite observations collected between 2018 and 2021. Its performance was later validated using more recent seasonal weather data.

Scientists say the work is especially urgent as southern China and Hong Kong experienced an unusually high number of typhoons and intense rainfall events last year. The city recorded multiple instances of its highest-level rainstorm warnings, setting new historical records.

Moving Toward Real-World Use

Weather agencies in both Hong Kong and mainland China are now working to integrate the AI system into operational forecasting services. Researchers say the long-term goal is to combine artificial intelligence with human meteorological expertise to deliver faster, more reliable warnings as extreme weather becomes increasingly unpredictable.