Applied Materials Warns of $600M Revenue Hit in 2026 From Expanding Chip Export Curbs

Applied Materials, a key supplier in the semiconductor industry, has flagged a potential $600 million revenue shortfall in 2026 as it faces intensified global export restrictions on chip technology.

The company warned that expanded curbs—reportedly driven by U.S. policy measures—could limit its ability to ship advanced tools to certain international markets. Such restrictions may disproportionately impact high-end process equipment, where growth margins are strongest.

Despite the anticipated hit, Applied Materials emphasized that the impact would likely be distributed across multiple product lines and geographies. The firm is reportedly evaluating mitigation strategies—including supply chain shifts, product realignment, and emphasis on domestic demand—to soften the blow.

Market analysts say the warning underscores how export controls, once intended as strategic levers, are now influencing financial forecasts and investor expectations. The forecast cut has weighed on peers and prompted renewed scrutiny of geopolitical risks embedded in the semiconductor supply chain.