Exporting Nvidia’s Blackwell Chip to China Could Erode U.S. AI Edge, Experts Warn
GeokHub
Contributing Writer
If the U.S. allows a version of Nvidia’s advanced Blackwell chip to be exported to China, it could significantly weaken America’s strategic lead in artificial intelligence, analysts say. Washington is currently debating whether to permit shipments of a less powerful variant—known as the B30A—as part of shifting export control policies.
Under the existing restrictions enacted in 2022, Nvidia’s most powerful AI accelerators were banned from China to curb the transfer of militarily relevant technology. But recent signals from the Trump administration have opened the door to a compromise: shipping downgraded versions. That move, critics warn, risks undermining the very controls designed to maintain U.S. dominance in AI infrastructure.
Experts analyzing export scenarios estimate that allowing even a moderate flow of B30A chips could drastically narrow America’s lead in AI compute. In the case of no powerful exports, the U.S. may retain roughly 30 times China’s AI computing capacity in 2026. But with moderate exports, that margin could shrink to just 4 times. In more permissive scenarios, China could come close to, or even surpass, U.S. capacity.
“If we decide to export B30As, it would dramatically shrink the U.S.'s main advantage in AI,” said Tim Fist, a technology policy researcher. Because the B30A is a streamlined version of the Blackwell architecture, China could simply buy more units to compensate.
President Trump has suggested that he might bring up Nvidia’s “super-duper” chip in talks with Chinese President Xi Jinping, stoking debate over what counts as strategic tech and what can be shared under licensing constraints.
Weighing economic gains against national security has never been easy. Authorities must decide whether the potential revenue from China offsets the risk of forfeiting AI leadership.
Allowing exports of high-end chips undercuts the export control regime that restricted them in the first place. If the B30A or variants are shipped in meaningful quantities, some analysts argue that the entire export control framework becomes hollow. That change could trigger a new arms race in AI infrastructure, where global balance shifts quickly.
