FanDuel Owner Cuts Profit Forecast Ahead of New Event-Contract Launch

Flutter Entertainment — the parent company of FanDuel and a global leader in online betting — has trimmed its full-year profit outlook to approximately US$2.9 billion, down from the earlier projection of US$3.3 billion. This shift reflects a recent run of favourable sports outcomes for bettors that increased the group’s payout burden and squeezed margins. At the same time, Flutter announced the imminent launch of a new product, “FanDuel Predicts,” developed in partnership with CME Group, which will allow users to place event-based bets on topics such as politics, entertainment and financial markets. The company expects this initiative to reduce core profit by US$40 million to US$50 million in the fourth quarter and by US$200 million to US$300 million in 2026, as it invests aggressively in the platform’s rollout.

Even though third-quarter adjusted earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA) rose to US$478 million — a 6 % increase year-on-year and slightly ahead of expectations — the full-year guidance still falls short of analyst consensus, which anticipated around US$3.2 billion. The company attributed the weaker outlook to what it called “customer-friendly” sports results, meaning outcomes and betting trends that favoured bettors and reduced operator margins. CEO Peter Jackson affirmed the firm’s conviction in its odds-making models but acknowledged the unique pressure in the current environment.

Analysis / Impact:
Flutter’s decision to lower its profit forecast while unveiling a strategic shift into event-contract betting signals both a defensive and growth posture. On one hand, the immediate margin impact of favourable betting outcomes underscores the volatility of the online betting model and the sensitivity of margins to sporting trends. On the other hand, the move into event-based betting — beyond traditional sports — demonstrates Flutter’s aim to diversify its product offering and tap into broader consumer engagement.

This dual strategy carries implications for emerging markets such as Nigeria. For local operators and regulators, the shift highlights that online betting and prediction-contract models will become more sophisticated and diversified. It also suggests regulatory frameworks may need to evolve to accommodate new types of wagering beyond sports. For investors and industry stakeholders, the case reinforces the notion that while growth opportunities remain robust in the betting sector, profitability can be unexpectedly impacted by sporting results, and careful risk management remains essential.