China’s shrinking and aging population is poised to deliver a significant economic blow, with a declining workforce, rising dependency ratios, and strained social systems threatening the world’s second-largest economy. The country’s population fell to 1.408 billion in 2024, down 1.39 million from 2023, marking the third consecutive year of decline. A record-low birth rate of 1.0 total fertility rate (TFR) in 2023, coupled with an aging population—22% aged 60 or over in 2024—creates structural challenges that could halve China’s economic output by mid-century. The shrinking labor force, down from its 2013 peak, is expected to reduce GDP growth by about 1% annually, as fewer workers support a growing retiree population. The old-age dependency ratio, now at 21%, is projected to...