Japan’s Next Likely Premier Faces Coalition Pushback

Japan’s incoming leader, Sanae Takaichi, is grappling with resistance from her coalition partner as she moves toward becoming the country’s first female prime minister. Takaichi, whose hardline conservative views have drawn criticism, met this week with the leader of Komeito, the socially moderate party that has long been allied with her Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), in efforts to smooth over tensions.

While Takaichi is expected to win approval in parliament later this month, political observers say her path is not assured. The LDP-Komeito coalition does not hold an outright majority, and internal dissent could delay, or even block, her ascension. Should the partnership collapse, Takaichi may need to forge alliances with parties like the Democratic Party for the People (DPP), which could shift Japan’s fiscal and economic direction.

Komeito has expressed concern over several of Takaichi’s stances—her conservative rhetoric on immigration, visits to controversial wartime shrines, and her positions on public ethics scandals have all drawn scrutiny. In a recent meeting with Takaichi, Komeito’s leader raised issues ranging from fundraising controversies to how the coalition might proceed under her leadership.

The main opposition party, Constitutional Democratic Party (CDP), has called on smaller parties to back an alternative candidate, with Yuichiro Tamaki of the DPP emerging as a possible contender. But for now, analysts see Takaichi as the frontrunner, noting that opposition groups lack unified support for a challenger.

Originally, a parliamentary vote on the premiership was expected around October 15, but insiders say it may be postponed as coalition negotiations drag on. In markets, the uncertainty has rippled outward: the yen fell to an eight-month low against the U.S. dollar, driven in part by concerns over fiscal policy direction if a realignment with the DPP becomes necessary.

The coming days will test Takaichi’s political resolve and ability to manage alliances as she seeks to navigate the tightrope of coalition governance in Japan’s volatile political era.